Does economic growth and energy consumption drive environmental degradation in China’s 31 provinces? New evidence from a spatial econometric perspective

The panel data analysis points to economic and social factors contributing to NO_x, PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and VOCs in China’s 31 provinces. The spatial correlation analysis using Global and Local Moran’s I values indicates the existence of a significant and positive spatial autocorrelation with respect to environment, economy and energy, and the high spatial correlation is evident in the eastern region, covering the northern part of Yangtze River Delta, Huaihai Economic Zone, and the lower reaches of the Yellow River Economic Belt. The empirical estimation is performed through spatial lag and spatial Durbin models. All emitted air pollutants in 31 provinces have significant spatial dependence and strong spillover effects. There is an inverted U-shaped relationship between emitted air pollutants (NO_x, PM₁₀, VOCs, and PM_2.5) and per capita GDP, which follows the EKC hypothesis. The relationship between SO₂ and per capita GDP does not follow the EKC hypothesis. There is a positive relationship between pollutant emissions and coal consumption, which is consistent with current studies for various countries like Canada, Denmark, UK and US and regions like New York State. However, the effects of science and technology investment on air pollutants are mostly positive, which is not as policy expected.     

安徽以增加知识价值为导向分配政策的实践研究

2017年10月,安徽省委省政府出台《关于实行以增加知识价值为导向分配政策的实施意见》。采取调查问卷的方式从五个方面跟踪总结了安徽省属高校院所对以增加知识价值为导向分配政策的执行情况,并对今后如何推动政策的进一步落实提出建议。     

Monetary policy and food inflation in South Africa: A quantile regression analysis

Although optimal monetary policy stabilizes food inflation theoretically, empirical studies remain limited not only in the context of volumes and the estimation approaches, but are focused on selected advanced and emerging countries to the neglect of Africa where poverty and dominance of food in the consumption basket are more pronounced. We provide empirical evidence in the context of South Africa using quantile regressions. Rising food prices are destabilized even further by restrictive monetary policy; a finding that has ramifications for inflation targeting, especially given that a quarter of the country’s population is food poor.     

资本外逃的经济效应与应对政策选择研究

资本外逃是一个复杂的经济问题,是由多种原因造成的,并会给一国经济发展带来不可估量的风险和损失。基于此,论文梳理了资本外逃的研究现状,提出了资本外逃所产生的经济效应,在此基础上,提出了资本外逃的政策选择,为一国在治理资本外逃时提供了政策选择和借鉴。     

综合性国家科学中心建设公共政策绩效实证分析——以安徽合肥为例

基于科技政策评价指标体系构建和熵权法分析方法，以2013年以来安徽合肥创建和实施推进综合性国家科学中心的政策绩效为研究对象，实证测算2013—2017年科技政策的评价绩效得分。从创新载体建设、人才计划、科技项目、财税金融、科技成果产出、技术转移与产业化等方面对政策实施效果及其薄弱环节进行分析，并就综合性国家科学中心建设的科技政策的优化与完善提出政策建议。     

The South African Financial Cycle and its Relation to Household Deleveraging

This paper considers the extent to which South African households have deleveraged, since the global financial crisis of 2007/2008. We extend the official South African Reserve Bank business cycle methodology to date financial cycles, from which we identify the peaks and troughs of the South African financial cycle going back to 1966. Our composite financial cycle index peaks in April 1974, January 1984 and May 2007; it has bottomed out in July 1979 and February 1999. Thus, we still await the trough. We further compare and contrast the deleveraging process in the current downward phase to the experiences from previous financial cycles. We find that the average period of the financial cycle in South Africa is much longer (approximately 17.3 years) than that of the business cycle (approximately 5.8 years), and that deleveraging has not yet matched the degree of deleveraging seen in previous downward phases. Our results suggest that further deleveraging is necessary, before we can expect to turn the financial corner.     

Monetary policy shocks and exchange rates in Asian countries

In this paper, we empirically investigate the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates in Asian countries. To do so, we use VAR models which impose sign restrictions on impulse responses to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to significant exchange rate appreciation in Malaysia, the People’s Republic of China, and the Republic of Korea. However, in India, Indonesia, the Philippines and Thailand, we find either a significant depreciation or no significant effect. These results suggest that an interest rate increase (or decrease) may not necessarily shield Asian countries from exchange rate depreciation (or appreciation) pressure following a U.S. interest rate increase (or decrease).     

Large scale infrastructure investment and economic performance – a case study of Oresund

We analyse the effect of a large scale infrastructure investment, namely the construction of the Oresund bridge, on the local and supra-regional economy. We employ the synthetic control method to construct counterfactual regions that mimic the trajectory of Malmo and Southern Sweden without treatment. Our results point to a positive effect. However, placebo tests in space and time only reveal statistical significance at a larger regional level. The results suggest that spillover effects are eminent.     

How much are electric vehicles driven?

The prospect for electric vehicles as a climate change solution hinges on their ability to reduce gasoline consumption. But this depends on how many miles electric vehicles are driven and on how many miles would have otherwise been driven in gasoline-powered vehicles. Using newly-available U.S. nationally representative data, this paper finds that electric vehicles are driven considerably fewer miles per year on average than gasoline-powered vehicles. The difference is highly statistically significant and holds for both all-electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, for both single- and multiple-vehicle households, and both inside and outside California. The paper discusses potential explanations and policy implications. Overall, the evidence suggests that today’s electric vehicles imply smaller environmental benefits than previously believed.     

老龄化与碳排放：消费效应还是生产效应？——基于2002-2017年中国省级面板数据的实证研究

人口老龄化是经济增长的一大阻碍,它对碳排放的影响是做出环境政策抉择的关键因素.以中国2002—2017年的省级面板数据为研究样本,从理论与实证两个层面分析人口老龄化与碳排放的关系及影响机制.一方面,构建包含碳排放的世代交叠模型(overlapping generations,OLG),发现老龄化主要通过消费效应和生产效应两个路径对碳排放产生影响;另一方面,从实证层面发现老龄化与碳排放之间存在倒"U"形关系,而且消费效应在人口老龄化与碳排放的关系中起到部分中介作用,生产效应的影响则不显著.